Broadway Best Bets is a weekly NFL betting article selecting the five preferred NFL lines of each week. Note: Sports gambling advice is intended for recreational purposes only. All odds and lines are from William Hill US Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Last week was the week for the unders to finally come through, with of 9 of 14 games falling short of their total. As a result, the numbers are more reasonable this week, and we should start to see a more even split on overs/unders as the season continues.
It was a good week for the Broadway Best Bets; we went 4-1 and, most importantly, moved above .500 on the season. Haven’t quite hit our break-even number yet, but we could get there with another good week. So let’s get into our top five plays for Week 7.
Broadway 2020 Season Record: 14-13-3
Buffalo Bills (-10) at New York Jets
The Jets still haven’t fired Adam Gase. They also have yet to cover a spread this season. Because of that, the line will continue to get bigger each week until it’s too great for their opponent to cover. However, I do not think this is that week.
At some books earlier in the week, I saw the line as high as Buffalo -12.5 or -13. So at -10, I think there’s a lot of value in what should be a hungry Bills team. Fresh off back-to-back losses, the Bills need to take advantage of a weak opponent in what is ultimately an important division game.
In Week 1, the Bills won at home over New York by 10 points. I expect them to improve on that performance in Week 7.
The Pick: Buffalo -10
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Brady return to New Orleans for this divisional game. I like Carolina to be competitive in this one, and they may need to score to keep up with New Orleans’ offense even if they would rather play a slow-paced game. Every Saints’ contest this season has gone over the point total, and I think this is another kind of “race to 30” type of game for the NFC South.
The Pick: Over 50
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Denver Broncos
This game opened at Kansas City -8.5 and even got as high as KC -9.5. It’s now at -7 at most books, which seems like a value to me when you look closely at this matchup. Four of the Chiefs’ five wins have come by more than a touchdown. Kansas City is 6th in DVOA, Denver is 24th. We don’t know how Le’Veon Bell will be used in Kansas City, but my guess is he makes them better in pass protection and in the red zone, which only makes the Chiefs’ offense more potent.
While division games are largely unpredictable, I think this line being right at 7 where a touchdown gives you the push makes it a good value bet, even on the road at Mile High.
The Pick: Kansas City -7
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
Chicago has played in a lot of low scoring games this year, which is the product of having a good defense and a bad offense. Each of their last three games have gone under the total, which is a trend I’m backing this week against the Rams. Los Angeles is also playing well on defense; the Bears are allowing the 3rd-fewest points per drive while the Rams allow the 9th-fewest. This should be a low-scoring slog where both teams’ defensive fronts overwhelm the other team’s offensive line.
The only way this game gets over 45 points, in my opinion, is with multiple defensive scores (which isn’t completely outside the realm of possibility).
The Pick: Under 45
Lock of the Week
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Houston Texans
Aaron Rodgers called last week’s loss to Tampa Bay a “wake up” call for the Packers. The Texans are fresh off a hard-fought division game that may or may not have broken their will for the season with an interim head coach in charge whose future is anything but certain.
Even without Aaron Jones, the Packers should be able to run all over Houston, whose defense is no where near as good as Tampa Bay’s (Houston is 27th in defensive DVOA, Tampa Bay is 1st). I like the under (57) in this match, and I like the Packers to roll over the Texans.
The Pick: Green Bay -3
How Betting Lines Work
A quick reminder for anyone unfamiliar with betting lines. “Favorites” are listed next to a negative number, which represents how many points they must win by to “cover the spread.” Titans -2.5, for example, means that Tennessee must beat the Broncos by 3 points or more for bettors to win. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s “total,” betting on whether or not the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a pre-selected number of points.
“ML” or “moneyline” is not against the spread, just picking the winner of the game. Many people refer to the moneyline as “straight up,” but this can be confusing, because if you’re ever at a betting window in Vegas, a “straight bet” means you are betting on the point spread. Instead of saying “straight up,” you’d want to say “moneyline” when you mean to pick the winner of the game regardless of the point spread to avoid any possible confusion.