Broadway Best Bets is a weekly NFL betting article selecting our preferred NFL lines to gamble on each week. Note: Sports gambling advice is intended for recreational purposes only. All odds and lines are from William Hill US Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
It’s Wild Card Weekend in the NFL, and Sunday provides three more games to bet on. Thanks to poor Colts clock management, the Bills won a thrilling game. The Seahawks and Rams contest proved to be every bit of boring and unpredictable… as was predicted. To end the night, the inevitable Tampa Bay win proved to be a lot closer than anyone expected.
On Saturday, the Broadway Best Bets went 4-4-1, because betting on the Seahawks is always dumb.
Let’s dive into Sunday’s games from a betting perspective.
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BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) at TENNESSEE TITANS
Total Points: o/u 54.5
Kickoff: 12:05 p.m. CT
The Pick: Let’s parlay Derrick Henry Anytime TD, JK Dobbins Anytime TD, Tennessee Titans +10.5, Over 48.5. (+374)
This parlay should make an edge-of-your-seat-game for Tennessee Titans fans a little easier on the stomach. The Baltimore Ravens are a very good offensive team and so are the Tennessee Titans. So this should be a high scoring affair much like their last two outings, but to be safe buying down the total of 54.5 all the way down to 48.5 and taking the over provides some extra coverage.
The Titans are 6-1-1 at home with the original under. In fact, the last two times these teams have met they’ve hit the over, but bettors should be worried about a high set at 54.4. This is all about the confidence you have as a bettor. You can take the parlay above and take the original over if you’re that confident.
Both of these teams love to run the ball so it should be no surprise that both of the running backs will each have ample opportunities to reach the end zone. If you want to parlay just the touchdowns the odds on both Dobbins and Henry scoring at any point is +201.
The spread is where things can get interesting. If you’re a diehard Titans fan you may have no doubt the Titans will win this game. If you’re that sure of it, you can get an alternate spread of -2.5 at +170 currently. However, the value in this parlay is buying ample coverage on the spread just in case they lose.
There are a lot of things working against the Titans this weekend. When both of these teams meet in the playoffs, the home team has always lost. On top of that, this is the NFL, it is really hard to beat a very good team three times in a row.
That’s is why the value is in taking an alternate spread that allows the Titans to lose but still have a chance at winning you money. Of course if they win, that’s icing on the cake.
Spread to Watch: Keep and eye on the total. If it drops, bet the over, if it rises you may want to heavily consider taking the Under.
Ravens Player Prop: JK Dobbins over 63.5 rushing yards (-112)
Titans Player Prop: Corey Davis over 59.5 receiving yards (-112)
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-10)
Total Points: o/u 47.5
Kickoff: 3:40 p.m. CT
The Pick: Alvin Kamara longest rush over 14.5 yards (+102)
Note: This was written at 4:30p on Saturday and this bet was available on FanDuel
Checking the FanDuel lines this beauty popped out as tremendous value. Back in November Kamara rushed 12 times for 67 yards, and had a long of 20 yards.
He has also had a long run of over 14.5 yards in nine of his games this year. On top of all that the Bears defense is susceptible to a big run. Including the game above, the Bears have allowed 13 runnings backs to break a long run of 15 and higher in just 11 games. That is wild.
The only problem with this bet is that it is a standalone bet and cannot be used in a same game parlay. However, you could add this to an anytime touchdown in the Ravens/Titans game and something else from the Steelers and Browns game and you could end up with a nice chunk of change.
Spread to watch: The New Orleans Saints are the much better team. The current line was at -9.5, but even if it goes to -10, it’d be safe there.
Bears Player Prop: Mitchell Trubisky over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+126)
Saints Player Prop: Michael Thomas over 4.5 receptions (-142)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
Total Points: o/u 47.5
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. CT
The Pick: Total points scored Under 47.5
Betting the under on any games is tough to stomach, because you are constantly on edge throughout the whole game, however both of these offenses are just going to be in rough shape.
Playing back to back games typically provides the defense with the advantage and the Steelers are one of the best defenses in left in the playoffs.
On top of that you have Kevin Stefanski and possibly multiple starting offensive linemen missing from this game. The Browns will also have inexperienced playcaller Alex Van Pelt serving as both defect head coach and offensive coordinator.
The Steelers are not that great on offense either. Yes, Ben Roethlisberger got some much needed rest, but there is no running game to be scared of and the wide receivers have had a season long battle with drops.
This all hinges on if the both Jack Conklin and Joel Bitonio miss the game. Right now they are both trending to be out, Jack Conklin is listed as questionable with an illness and Joel Bitonio is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
If those two somehow get cleared, the better bet would be to take the over. This is truly a game time decision.
Players to watch: The aforementioned Joel Bitonio and Jack Conklin, along with Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson.
Browns Player Prop: Nick Chubb Anytime (+110)
Steelers Player Prop: James Conner over 12.5 rush attempts (-108)
How Betting Lines Work
A quick reminder for anyone unfamiliar with betting lines. “Favorites” are listed next to a negative number, which represents how many points they must win by to “cover the spread.” Titans -2.5, for example, means that Tennessee must beat the Broncos by 3 points or more for bettors to win. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s “total,” betting on whether or not the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a pre-selected number of points.
“ML” or “moneyline” is not against the spread, just picking the winner of the game. Many people refer to the moneyline as “straight up,” but this can be confusing, because if you’re ever at a betting window in Vegas, a “straight bet” means you are betting on the point spread. Instead of saying “straight up,” you’d want to say “moneyline” when you mean to pick the winner of the game regardless of the point spread to avoid any possible confusion.