Checking in on the Titans preseason prop bets

Before the season started, Broadway’s John Glennon wrote a piece outlining various Titans-related team and individual projections and supplying his own predictions.

With three games left in the season, I thought now would be a good time to check in on those props and see how close each one is to “cashing” (assuming you took the over on all of them).

Spoiler alert: most have already hit with plenty of games to spare.

Over/under on Titans’ wins: 8.5

Current status: 9 wins

Analysis: Glennon took the over on this one, and with good reason. The Titans had cleared 8.5 wins four years in a row. Obviously, with the most recent win against Jacksonville, the Titans are over this mark for the fifth consecutive season, with a chance to hit double-digit wins for the first time since 2008.

Over/under on Ryan Tannehill passing yards: 3,425.5

Current status: 3,209

Analysis: Tannehill has a chance to go over his preseason passing yardage total in the next game against Detroit. He’s 217 yards shy of going over the prop and averaging 247 passing yards per game. If he does come up short of this number in Week 15, it’s almost guaranteed to happen the following Sunday against Green Bay.

Mike Herndon has been clamoring for a Tennessee quarterback to break the Titans-era single-season passing yardage record set by Matt Hasselbeck in 2011. Needing 363 yards to get there over the final three games, Tannehill is very close to clearing that mark as well.

Over/under on Tannehill touchdown passes: 22.5

Current status: 27

Analysis: This prop was easy money. The only thing that could’ve stopped Tannehill from going over 22.5 passing touchdowns was an injury to the Titans signal caller. The Comeback Player of the Year threw his 23rd touchdown pass in Week 12 as the Titans blew out the Colts. He now stands a decent likelihood of surpassing 30 touchdowns on the year.

Over/under on Tannehill interceptions: 10.5

Current status: 5

Analysis: Barring a couple of meltdown games over the final stretch, Tannehill seems unlikely to go over 10.5 interceptions this season. He’d need to average two per game for the last three weeks, a steep increase from his current average of just over one interception per three games.

Derrick Henry rushing yards: 1,290.5

Current status: 1,532

Analysis: Derrick Henry easily cleared his preseason rushing prop during the Week 13 loss to Cleveland. He now sits just eight yards from his league-leading 2019 total. The workhorse has shown no signs of slowing down, unaffected by the wear-and-tear of carrying it 386 times last season (including playoffs). In fact, the King is well positioned to lead the league in rushing for a second straight season, currently ahead of the second-place rusher Dalvin Cook by 180 yards (and nearly 500 yards ahead of third-place James Robinson).

Henry rushing touchdowns: 11.5

Current status: 14

Analysis: Henry is on track to exceed the number of rushing touchdowns he scored last year, which — at 16 — tied Aaron Jones for the league high. Obviously, the oddsmakers weren’t expecting Henry to improve on last year’s incredible performance, setting both his yards and touchdowns below his totals from a season ago. But Henry is on track to improve his production in both yards and touchdowns, even scratching his way into the MVP conversation. As a running back, it’s impressive for him just to be mentioned in the discussion.

The last non-quarterback to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, when he ran for over 2,000 yards and single-handedly carried the Vikings to a 10-win season and a playoff appearance. Henry would likely have to break 2,000 yards himself to actually be in serious contention for the award, which would mean rushing for 156 yards per game over the next three weeks. Peterson ran for 12 touchdowns that year, a number Henry surpassed during the Titans’ Week 12 win over Indianapolis.

A.J. Brown receiving yards: 1,074.5

Current status: 837

Analysis: A.J. Brown is building on his terrific rookie season with a sensational sophomore campaign, but a few nagging injuries may keep him from reaching his preseason projection. Brown would need to average 80 receiving yards per game to close out the year; he’s currently averaging 76 yards per contest. If Brown hadn’t missed a pair of games, I think he’d hit this total with ease.

I do think Brown can reach 1,000 yards, but can he get that extra 75 needed for this prop? It could come down to whether or not the Titans lock up their playoff seed prior to Week 17.

Brown touchdown catches: 7.5

Current status: 9

AnalysisOddsmakers set Brown’s touchdown line right at the number he put up in his rookie year; if he matched that production, he’d clear this line. With touchdowns in eight of his 11 games, Brown has proven to have a nose for the end zone. Like his teammates Tannehill and Henry, Brown reached this prop back in Week 12 against the Colts.

The Titans have already hit five of these preseason props and are on track to hit two of the other three. Brown’s yardage mark is the only projection that isn’t on pace to go over. That’s a pretty remarkable feat for what has developed into arguably the best offense ever fielded by the Tennessee Titans.

Leave a Reply