MLS Power Rankings: Matchday 11

Well, it was bound to happen eventually. LAFC lost and Sporting KC won, meaning there are no longer any undefeated or winless teams in MLS this season. We’ve also had the first two coaches fired this week, with Gerhard Struber and Ezra Hendrickson out at New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire, respectively.

Let’s dive into the rankings this week. And before you get mad at me, remember that these aren’t my opinion. Rather, they’re a detailed and meticulous scientific formula that I completely made up. Dispute their authority at your own risk.

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As a refresher, here’s how the OPI model works:

  1. Points per game – 30%
  2. Goal difference – 15%
  3. Form in last five games – 15%
  4. Expected goal difference – 12.5%
  5. Strength of schedule – 12.5%
  6. Home and away form – 12.5%
  7. Goals added – 2.5%

Matchday 11 Power Rankings

RANKTEAMSCORERANK CHANGESCORE CHANGE
1LAFC13.29-1.69
2Seattle Sounders12.53-0.55
3Nashville SC12.16+3+3.82
4New England Revolution11.98-1+1.23
5FC Cincinnati9.47+2+1.20
6Vancouver Whitecaps9.30+2+1.13
7ST. Louis CITY SC8.78-30.00
8Columbus Crew8.77-30.00
9Philadelphia Union7.36+0.63
10San Jose Earthquakes5.94+2+0.86
11Atlanta United5.26-1-1.43
12New York City FC4.32-1-1.09
13FC Dallas3.76+60.00
14Minnesota United3.75-1-1.04
15DC United3.54-1-1.16
16Houston Dynamo3.48-0.45
17New York Red Bulls3.41+3-0.04
18Toronto FC3.15-1-0.73
19Orlando City SC1.96-1-1.86
20Colorado Rapids1.96+2+0.62
21Inter Miami CF1.41+3+1.47
22Chicago Fire1.01-7-3.64
23Portland Timbers0.91-2-0.44
24Real Salt Lake-0.13+1+0.08
25LA Galaxy-0.44-2-0.50
26Austin FC-1.17-0.05
27Charlotte FC-3.94+0.94
28CF Montréal-3.99+1.61
29Sporting KC-6.37+0.93

Let’s start with the two sides that fired managers this weekend. New York Red Bulls lost at home to Philadelphia Union. They’re in last place in the East, have just nine points from 11 matches, and only have scored seven goals. Oh, and there was the whole thing where Dante Vanzier was suspended for using racist language and Struber didn’t take him off, and then didn’t apologize, and Red Bulls supporters were openly protesting and calling for his job. It’s a bad situation, and unsurprising to see him gone.

Chicago Fire lost 3-0 against Nashville SC, and the scoreline flattered Chicago. The Fire conceded another Hany Mukhtar hat trick, were outshot 30-3, and gave up the third-highest single match expected goals total since the start of 2022. It was a dominant win for Nashville and another sub-par showing for Chicago, who are just two points ahead of Red Bulls in 14th place. Maybe Hendrickson didn’t have much to work with, but the writing has been on the wall for a hot minute.

LAFC and Seattle Sounders maintained their spots at the top of the rankings, but a closer look shows that their score decreased, significantly in LAFC’s case. New England Revolution dropped a spot in the rankings, despite a significant score increase of +1.23 with their 2-0 road win against Toronto FC. In this case, their drop in the rankings has nothing to do with their performance, and is solely because Nashville’s +3.82 increase was enough to jump them.

Vancouver Whitecaps continue to stay in the top 10, despite being 16th in the Supporters’ Shield standings with just 1.4 points per game. They continue to put up some of the best underlying numbers in the league, and are tied with New England for the best form over the last five matches.

Oh, speaking of teams rankings change not matching their score change, FC Dallas climbed six spots (!!) this week, despite not technically playing a match (their game against St. Louis was abandoned due to weather). The eight teams immediately around Dallas had negative performances this week, and in Dallas’s case, not playing at all was literally a better performance.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more.

Author: Ben Wrightis the Director of Soccer Content and a Senior MLS Contributor for Broadway Sports covering Nashville SC and the US National Team. Previously Ben was the editor and a founder of Speedway Soccer, where he has covered Nashville SC and their time in USL before journeying to Major League Soccer since 2018. Raised in Louisville, KY Ben grew up playing before a knee injury ended his competitive career. When he is not talking soccer he is probably producing music, drinking coffee or hanging out with his wife and kids. Mastodon

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