Is the end near? Chicago Fire, New York Red Bulls, CF Montréal, Sporting KC and the LA Galaxy. The four horsemen of the MLS apocalypse have been summoned to reign death and destruction on the league. I’m not sure who three of the horsemen would be, but I know for sure they’d be lead by pro/rel Ted. I’m absolutely terrified.
Anyway, onto the #analysis. Here’s how the model works:
- Points per game – 30%
- Goal difference – 15%
- Form in last five games – 15%
- Expected goal difference – 12.5%
- Strength of schedule – 12.5%
- Home and away form – 12.5%
- Goals added – 2.5%
Matchday 12 Power Rankings
| RANKING | TEAM | SCORE | RANKING CHANGE | SCORE CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAFC | 15.85 | — | +2.56 |
| 2 | Seattle Sounders | 14.11 | — | +1.58 |
| 3 | Nashville SC | 12.45 | — | +0.29 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 11.34 | — | -0.64 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 9.78 | +3 | +1.01 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 9.47 | -1 | 0.00 |
| 7 | ST. Louis CITY SC | 8.52 | — | -0.26 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Union | 8.20 | +1 | +0.84 |
| 9 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 7.60 | -3 | -1.70 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 5.25 | +3 | +1.49 |
| 11 | San Jose Earthquakes | 4.93 | -2 | -1.01 |
| 12 | New York Red Bulls | 4.61 | +5 | +1.20 |
| 13 | DC United | 4.07 | +2 | +0.53 |
| 14 | New York City FC | 3.67 | -2 | -0.65 |
| 15 | Atlanta United | 3.64 | -4 | -1.62 |
| 16 | Portland Timbers | 3.55 | +7 | +2.64 |
| 17 | Inter Miami CF | 2.56 | +4 | +1.15 |
| 18 | Houston Dynamo | 2.51 | -2 | -0.97 |
| 19 | Chicago Fire | 2.16 | +3 | +1.15 |
| 20 | Minnesota United | 2.07 | -6 | -1.68 |
| 21 | Colorado Rapids | 1.68 | -1 | -0.28 |
| 22 | LA Galaxy | 1.49 | +3 | +1.93 |
| 23 | Orlando City SC | 1.33 | -4 | -0.63 |
| 24 | Toronto FC | 0.83 | -6 | -2.32 |
| 25 | CF Montréal | -1.22 | +3 | +2.77 |
| 26 | Charlotte FC | -1.80 | +1 | +2.14 |
| 27 | Real Salt Lake | -1.86 | -3 | -1.73 |
| 28 | Austin FC | -2.23 | -2 | -1.06 |
| 29 | Sporting KC | -4.18 | — | +2.19 |
Like I said, some teams that had been bad got results this week. Some of those teams are no longer bad.
CF Montréal certainly aren’t bad anymore. In fact, they’re the hottest team in MLS right now: four wins from their last five, one goal conceded from their last six in all competitions, and up to seventh place in the table. After beating Toronto midweek in the Canadian Championship, they clobbered them at home, outshooting Bob Bradley’s team 14-2. Hernan Losada has turned this team around quickly. Their score has shot up by 7.57 points in the last five weeks, and they’re quickly climbing the table.
Toronto FC are heading the opposite direction. They’ve won just one of their last five games and are shipping goals left and right. There’s unrest among the fanbase, including four supporters receiving lifetime bans from BMO Field this week. It’s not good. Bradley’s seat appears to be quite warm.
New York Red Bulls won the Hudson River Derby this week against NYCFC, and they quickly got that new manager boost under interim Troy Lesene. Their underlying numbers were actually among the best in the league under Gerhard Struber, but their finishing was atrocious and they couldn’t buy a win. They got a result against their rivals this week and could quickly turn things around.
Portland Timbers had the biggest week in the rankings, jumping up seven spots and increasing their score by +2.64. They beat Vancouver Whitecaps (who were ranked #6 heading into the match) 3-1 at Providence Park. Evander scored twice, up to three goals and two assists in his last five, and finally showing the player the Timbers saw when they brought him in for a club-record $10 million.
LAFC had the second-best week, increasing their score by +2.56 points and maintaining their stranglehold on first place. They cruised past Real Salt Lake on the road, and honestly never looked like they got out of second gear. Denis Bouanga grabbed his ninth goal of the year with an absolute rocket, and the Black & Gold are in a tier of their own.
Nashville SC drew DC United 1-1 on the road. They were up 1-0 in the final 10 minutes, but some sloppy defending allowed DC back into the match. They’re still on pace for the best single-season defensive record in league history, but Walker Zimmerman can’t come back quickly enough.
One final game to point out. Columbus Crew drew Orlando City 2-2 at Lower.com Field. Despite the shared points, Columbus increased their score by +1.01 and moved up three spots. Orlando’s score dropped by -0.64 and lost four spots in the rankings. While the scoreline was level, the balance of play was not. Columbus nearly tripled Orlando’s expected goals (3.49 to 1.22) and outshot them 22-10. The Crew should have scored more than twice, and were punished for it by conceding a Duncan McGuire equalizer in the 92nd minute.
Thanks for reading this week! Make sure to check back in next week for more.
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