A full double game week in MLS means lots of change in the rankings. 12 games in Matchday 20 on Wednesday and 14 games on Matchday 21 on Saturday, and the results were as unpredictable as ever in MLS. I look forward to hearing how biased the model is in the comments.
As a reminder, here’s how the OPI (Overall Performance Index) model works:
- Points per game – 30%
- Goal difference – 15%
- Form in last five games – 15%
- Expected goal difference – 12.5%
- Strength of schedule – 12.5%
- Home and away form – 12.5%
- Goals added – 2.5%
Matchday 21 Power Rankings
| RANK | TEAM | SCORE | RANK CHANGE | SCORE CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Cincinnati | 25.75 | +1 | -0.22 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 24.06 | +2 | +1.55 |
| 3 | LAFC | 23.94 | — | +1.24 |
| 4 | Nashville SC | 23.73 | -3 | -3.56 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 23.23 | +2 | +3.29 |
| 6 | ST. Louis CITY SC | 20.39 | -1 | -0.43 |
| 7 | New England Revolution | 20.37 | +1 | +1.01 |
| 8 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 18.80 | +1 | +1.87 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 18.63 | -3 | -1.36 |
| 10 | DC United | 14.85 | +3 | +3.80 |
| 11 | Atlanta United | 13.86 | -1 | -2.79 |
| 12 | New York Red Bulls | 13.54 | +3 | +4.23 |
| 13 | Orlando City SC | 13.51 | -2 | +0.62 |
| 14 | FC Dallas | 10.15 | -2 | -2.26 |
| 15 | Houston Dynamo | 9.85 | +1 | +0.87 |
| 16 | Austin FC | 8.37 | +9 | +5.96 |
| 17 | Minnesota United | 8.19 | — | +0.01 |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | 7.20 | +3 | +2.39 |
| 19 | Portland Timbers | 6.30 | -1 | -0.45 |
| 20 | San Jose Earthquakes | 6.13 | -6 | -3.68 |
| 21 | Chicago Fire | 6.08 | +3 | +3.10 |
| 22 | New York City FC | 6.02 | -3 | -0.08 |
| 23 | CF Montréal | 4.48 | — | +1.36 |
| 24 | Toronto FC | 2.99 | -4 | -2.51 |
| 25 | Sporting KC | 2.86 | -3 | -0.83 |
| 26 | LA Galaxy | 1.83 | +1 | +0.63 |
| 27 | Charlotte FC | 1.60 | -1 | +0.07 |
| 28 | Colorado Rapids | -1.46 | — | -0.03 |
| 29 | Inter Miami CF | -4.12 | — | -1.55 |
FC Cincinnati beat Toronto FC 3-0 at home on Wednesday night, their 10th-consecutive home win. On Saturday, though, they lost 3-0 on the road against DC United. It was their first loss in 14 matches in all competitions. Their overall score dropped slightly from last week, but with Nashville’s losses, they move into first.
Nashville SC played on the road against CF Montréal and Columbus Crew, losing both times and looking incredibly flat in the process. They drop to third in the Supporters’ Shield race and down to fourth in the power rankings.
Philadelphia Union make a push into second, with a road draw against Orlando City and a weekend thumping of Inter Miami. They’ve scored the third-most goals and have the best goal difference in the Eastern Conference, and are emphatically over their CCL hangover.
Columbus Crew jump two spots into fifth place with a straightforward 2-0 win at home over Nashville SC on Saturday. It’s remarkable how quickly Wilfried Nancy has this team firing on all cylinders, scoring the most goals in the East and looking firmly like an MLS Cup contender.
One of the biggest knocks on Vancouver Whitecaps was their awful away form. They got their first road win of the year on Saturday, knocking off LAFC 3-2 at BMO Stadium. The underlying numbers love them, they play an attractive style of soccer, and they’re ridiculously hard to beat at home. If they can add in some away results in the second half of the year, they could be something special.
Lastly, Austin FC are this week’s big winners. 3-0 wins against FC Dallas and Houston Dynamo see their score increase by 5.96 points, jumping nine spots into 16th place. After looking pedestrian for most of the season, they’re into 8th place in the table, just four points out of 3rd. Things can turn around quickly in MLS.
Also, Inter Miami lost again. That’s seven consecutive losses in league play. They’re really bad. Bad enough that maybe Lionel Messi can’t even save them.
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