I told myself I was going to keep this short. It’s a holiday weekend, after all.
I didn’t keep it short.
- Points per game – 30%
- Goal difference – 15%
- Form in last five games – 15%
- Expected goal difference – 12.5%
- Strength of schedule – 12.5%
- Home and away form – 12.5%
- Goals added – 2.5%
Matchday 22 Power Rankings
| RANK | TEAM | SCORE | RANK CHANGE | SCORE CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Cincinnati | 26.42 | — | +0.67 |
| 2 | Nashville SC | 25.31 | +2 | +1.58 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew | 24.02 | +2 | +0.79 |
| 4 | ST. Louis CITY SC | 23.13 | +2 | +2.74 |
| 5 | LAFC | 22.54 | -2 | -1.40 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 22.15 | -4 | -1.91 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 21.08 | +2 | +2.45 |
| 8 | New England Revolution | 20.00 | -1 | -0.37 |
| 9 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 16.35 | -1 | -2.45 |
| 10 | Atlanta United | 16.19 | +1 | +2.33 |
| 11 | Orlando City SC | 15.21 | +2 | +1.70 |
| 12 | DC United | 13.76 | -2 | -1.09 |
| 13 | New York Red Bulls | 13.64 | -1 | +0.10 |
| 14 | FC Dallas | 12.49 | — | +2.34 |
| 15 | Minnesota United | 11.84 | +2 | +3.65 |
| 16 | Houston Dynamo | 8.79 | -1 | -1.06 |
| 17 | Real Salt Lake | 8.74 | 1 | 1.54 |
| 18 | Austin FC | 7.26 | -2 | -1.11 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 7.21 | +3 | +1.19 |
| 20 | San Jose Earthquakes | 6.76 | — | +0.63 |
| 21 | Sporting KC | 5.75 | +4 | +2.89 |
| 22 | Chicago Fire | 4.36 | -1 | -1.72 |
| 23 | CF Montréal | 3.59 | — | -0.89 |
| 24 | Portland Timbers | 3.44 | -5 | -2.86 |
| 25 | Toronto FC | 1.93 | -1 | -1.06 |
| 26 | Charlotte FC | 1.60 | +1 | — |
| 27 | LA Galaxy | 1.57 | -1 | -0.26 |
| 28 | Inter Miami CF | -2.94 | +1 | +1.18 |
| 29 | Colorado Rapids | -3.23 | -1 | -1.77 |
FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution met at TQL Stadium in one of the juiciest clashes of the season so far. First and second in the Supporters’ Shield heading into the match, New England stunned Cincinnati with a 2-2 draw, the first time the Lions have failed to take all three points at home this season.
Stunningly, New England’s score dropped by a marginal 0.37 points, despite a road draw against the top-rated team in the league. This is where the underlying numbers shade the OPI model a bit. Despite scoring twice, they were outshot 22-9 and lost the xG battle by 1.58. It was a good result for New England. It was also one that Cincy wins nine out of ten times. It still feels a bit unfair to New England.
Philadelphia Union had moved all the way up to second place, but fall to sixth after a 2-0 loss on the road against Atlanta United. Atlanta have been frustratingly inconsistent this season; they’ve won consecutive matches just once, and that was back in early March. And while their roster is incomplete, they certainly have talent, with Thiago Almada showing his quality once again. They’ve also promised to add a major piece in the summer window. Unfortunately, Giorgos Giakoumakis limped off with a hamstring injury. Losing him for more than a week or two will really hamper the Five Stripes.
Minnesota United rolled over Portland Timbers. Emmanuel Reynoso is back, bagging a brace and just generally doing Emmanuel Reynoso things. They also just added DP striker Timo Pukki, a serial finisher at the Premier League and Championship levels who should absolutely eat in MLS. They’re my team to watch down the stretch. I think they’ll climb the table quickly.
Nashville SC bounced back from two consecutive road losses last week with a professional 2-0 win over DC United at Geodis Park. They’ve been so much more open and attacking at home, and while Hany Mukhtar didn’t score, he set up Randall Leal’s first goal with a wonderful pass over the top. They have a season-defining stretch coming up. After a road trip to Chicago Fire on Saturday, they’ll have massive matches against Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati before the Leagues Cup break. These games will either end or bolster their Supporters’ Shield challenge.
Lastly, LAFC lost on the road to a heavily rotated FC Dallas side. LAFC made changes, too, but they have so much depth that they still managed a starting-quality lineup. Dallas were opportunistic and pragmatic, scoring twice from just seven shots and climbing to fifth in the Western Conference table. LAFC are struggling, winning just twice in seven matches since their Concacaf Champions League defeat. They’ll probably sign an MVP-quality DP in the summer and go on a run. They always do.
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