MLS Power Rankings: Matchday 25

MLS had its final weekend of action before the month-long Leagues Cup break. There were some big shifts in the top 10, and several teams had big swings in score without changing their rankings. Let’s dive in.

As a reminder, here’s how the rankings work (full explainer linked here).

  • Points per game – 30%
  • Goal difference – 15%
  • Form in last five games – 15%
  • Expected goal difference – 12.5%
  • Strength of schedule – 12.5%
  • Home and away form – 12.5%
  • Goals added – 2.5%

Matchday 25 Power Rankings

RANKTEAMSCORERANK CHANGESCORE CHANGE
1FC Cincinnati29.79+3.78
2ST. Louis CITY SC25.88+1.00
3LAFC24.37+3+2.64
4Philadelphia Union23.57+3+3.54
5Columbus Crew23.14-1-0.50
6New England Revolution23.07+2+4.63
7Seattle Sounders21.64-2-1.27
8Nashville SC21.62-5-3.02
9Vancouver Whitecaps20.43+4+5.35
10Orlando City SC17.53+1+1.68
11Atlanta United15.92-2-1.72
12New York Red Bulls14.24-2-1.67
13DC United13.45-1-2.38
14Real Salt Lake13.40+0.90
15Minnesota United12.90+2+3.50
16Austin FC11.17-1+0.65
17FC Dallas10.29-1+0.07
18Chicago Fire8.83+4+3.15
19San Jose Earthquakes8.43+1+2.34
20New York City FC8.31-2-0.61
21Houston Dynamo6.56-2-2.23
22Portland Timbers4.62+21.18
23Sporting KC4.55-0.69
24LA Galaxy3.48-3-2.52
25CF Montréal3.20+0.53
26Colorado Rapids-0.21+1+0.35
27Charlotte FC-1.41-1-2.49
28Toronto FC-3.06-0.95
29Inter Miami CF-5.66-2.12

Starting close to home. Nashville SC had a horrific week, dropping five spots into eighth. Their 3.02 points lost was the biggest score decrease of the week. They lost at home to Philadelphia Union and away to FC Cincinnati, two matches that could have significantly improved their position in the table down the stretch They played well for stretches during both, but shockingly had two players sent off in both matches. It was a shambolic, self-inflicted week that will cost them points in the table and effectively ended their Supporters’ Shield run.

After looking like one of the best teams in MLS for the first two thirds of the season, they’ve been one of the worst in the last month. Only Houston Dynamo (0.40 ppg) and Toronto FC (0.00 ppg) have been worse than Nashville’s 0.60 points per game in their last five games. Nashville badly need to reset and reinforce during the break.

FC Cincinnati kept up their Supporters’ Shield form, coming from behind on the road to beat New York Red Bulls and thumping Nashville at home. They’re on pace for 74 points, which would beat the single-season record of 73.

While Cincinnati are firm favorites for the Shield, New England Revolution aren’t going down without a fight. They climb to sixth place with the second-biggest score increase this week, beating Atlanta United 2-1 and stomping DC United 4-0. After a slow start to the year, they’re among the hottest in the league and have moved up the rankings rapidly.

Vancouver Whitecaps were the big winners this week, improving their score by 5.35 points, jumping four spots into ninth place. They were really good in a 2-1 win over Austin FC, and smashed LA Galaxy 4-2. They’ve been excellent at BC Place all season, but their road form has been the one thing holding them back.


I’m also including an updated look at the projected standings. These projections are simply based on teams home and away points per game averaged out over their remaining schedule. It doesn’t factor in head to head or include real numbers, so yes, I know it’s not perfect. It’s not designed to be a comprehensive projection, but it’s a quick and easy way to check how teams are trending.

With the Leagues Cup taking over for the next month, the Power Rankings will be updated again after MLS returns on August 20. Thanks for reading!

Author: Ben Wrightis the Director of Soccer Content and a Senior MLS Contributor for Broadway Sports covering Nashville SC and the US National Team. Previously Ben was the editor and a founder of Speedway Soccer, where he has covered Nashville SC and their time in USL before journeying to Major League Soccer since 2018. Raised in Louisville, KY Ben grew up playing before a knee injury ended his competitive career. When he is not talking soccer he is probably producing music, drinking coffee or hanging out with his wife and kids. Mastodon

Comments

  1. I finally got perturbed enough to sign-up on one of these MLS ranking sites. Not sure if these “analysts” (if they can even be legitimately called that) don’t actually do any analysis of the teams and results before they publish. Or even follow ALL of the MLS teams to garner a logical ranking. How in the world do you (an other sites) have RSL ranked 14th? They have been undefeated for 9 straight MLS matches (which is quite a feat within itself). Won (or got a result) in all of the road games during this streak. Tied for the 7th place point total in the league. And sit 4 points out of first place in the West. I mean seriously I find it quite embarrassing to think these rankings have any sort of merit.

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