More MLS action means more power rankings. I’ll spare you the fluff and dive right in.
As a reminder, the rankings use an all new model I’ve obnoxiously titled the Overall Performance Index. Click here for a full breakdown of how the model works.
Week 25 Power Rankings
|3||New York City FC||26.47||-1|
|5||New York Red Bulls||15.07||—|
|17||Real Salt Lake||5.49||—|
|18||New England Revolution||4.93||+1|
|21||Inter Miami CF||-0.03||—|
|22||Orlando City SC||-2.01||—|
|26||San Jose Earthquakes||-4.97||—|
Not a ton of movement in this week’s rankings. LAFC and Philadelphia Union continue to separate themselves from the rest of the league, while NYCFC have really dropped off since Taty Castellanos’s departure.
Since not much else changed, I’m going to take a second to talk about why Nashville SC continue to be ranked in the top 10 here, despite taking just 30% of possible points since the June international break.
A big change to this year’s model was to further increase the value placed on actual results, actual goals scored, and form over the last five matches. Those three metrics account for 60% of a team’s entire score. Nashville are the third-worst team in MLS over their last five matches (0.60 ppg), but their points per game and goal difference are still good enough for 13th and 14th best in the league, respectively. As bad as they’ve been recently, they’ve done enough over the course of the season to prop themselves up a bit.
The underlying metrics are where they really separate themselves. Nashville’s expected goal difference is the fourth best in all of MLS, only behind NYCFC, LAFC, Philadelphia and Montréal. Their G+ (goals added) is also fourth-best in the league. And their strength of schedule is the ninth-best in MLS.
All this goes towards the theory that Nashville have done a lot well this season, and been somewhere between unlucky and bad in the final third and in front of their own goal. With just eight games left this season, they’re probably not going to change who they are. But just a couple of finished chances, the type of chances that the other top teams have buried all year, would have drastically changed their on-field results.