Week 28 & 29 MLS Power Rankings

Another double game week of MLS action means plenty of movement in the power rankings. Let’s dive right in.

How the rankings work

These power rankings aren’t a subjective result of one person’s opinion, but use a stats-based model for each team to get a more in-depth look at where clubs actually stand. The model weighs points per game and strength of schedule most heavily, with goal difference and expected goal difference weighted incrementally less. This is an attempt to show not just how teams have done in the table, but how they’ve played on the field. If you’re interested in the methodology, the full model can be viewed here.

These power rankings aren’t an attempt to predict the final table, just to provide readers with a different angle from which to judge teams. A helpful way to think of it is if a team is significantly higher in the rankings than they are in the table, they’re probably underperforming. If they’re significantly lower in the rankings than in the table, they’re overperforming.

Week 28 & 29 Power Rankings

  1. New England Revolution (-)
  2. Seattle Sounders (↑2)
  3. Sporting KC (↑1)
  4. Nashville SC (↓1)
  5. NYCFC (↓2)
  6. DC United (↑2)
  7. Colorado Rapids (↓1)
  8. LA Galaxy (↓1)
  9. Philadelphia Union (↑1)
  10. Minnesota United (↓1)
  11. CF Montréal (-)
  12. Atlanta United (-)
  13. New York Red Bulls (-)
  14. Orlando City (↑2)
  15. Portland Timbers (-)
  16. Real Salt Lake (↓2)
  17. Vancouver Whitecaps (↑1)
  18. LAFC (↓1)
  19. FC Dallas (-)
  20. Columbus Crew (↑1)
  21. Houston Dynamo (↑1)
  22. San Jose Earthquakes (↓2)
  23. Austin FC (-)
  24. Chicago Fire (-)
  25. Inter Miami CF (-)
  26. Toronto FC (-)
  27. FC Cincinnati (-)

Nashville SC drop two spots after a pair of draws with Orlando City and NYCFC. Their overall score actually improved slightly, but with upward movement around them, it wasn’t enough to keep pace.

Seattle Sounders jump two spots after a dominant 3-0 win over Colorado Rapids, and they’ve pushed within 0.20 points of league leaders New England Revolution, who beat CF Montréal 4-1 midweek before the weekend’s results officially clinched their Eastern Conference title.

Portland Timbers beat LAFC and Inter Miami, and while their score improved, it wasn’t enough to move out of 15th. DC United‘s midweek 3-1 win over Minnesota United was enough for them to jump up two spots, despite a 2-1 loss to Orlando on Saturday.

Real Salt Lake beat LA Galaxy on Wednesday, and looked set to make a jump, but their 2-1 loss to a low-ranked Austin FC on Saturday dropped them two spots. LAFC continue to struggle. A loss to Portland and a 1-1 draw with the Galaxy has them down a spot and in real danger of missing the playoffs.

Projected standings

New England have officially clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and barring a drastic collapse, they’ll wrap up the Supporters Shield quickly. At the other end of the table, Chicago Fire and FC Cincinnati could both be eliminated in the next round of matches. A loss for either side (or wins from DC United, NYCFC and CF Montréal) would officially take them out of playoff contention.

In the West, all three Texas sides are in similar danger of elimination. FC Dallas and Austin FC have a three point margin, and Houston Dynamo are just two points from elimination. Vancouver Whitecaps are making a late run for a playoff spot, while LAFC have a lot of work to do to qualify.

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