Two weeks of MLS action packed into one seven-day period and another edition of the Power Rankings. Nature is healing.
As a reminder, the rankings use an all new model I’ve obnoxiously titled the Overall Performance Index. Click here for a full breakdown of how the model works.
Week 29 Power Rankings
| Rank | Team | Score | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 35.88 | — |
| 2 | LAFC | 34.62 | — |
| 3 | New York City FC | 24.29 | — |
| 4 | CF Montréal | 16.71 | — |
| 5 | Austin FC | 16.63 | — |
| 6 | New York Red Bulls | 16.45 | — |
| 7 | Nashville SC | 15.15 | — |
| 8 | FC Dallas | 10.61 | +1 |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 9.85 | -1 |
| 10 | Minnesota United | 9.17 | — |
| 11 | FC Cincinnati | 8.88 | — |
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 8.26 | — |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 7.49 | +3 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids | 6.77 | -1 |
| 15 | Atlanta United | 6.52 | -1 |
| 16 | Portland Timbers | 4.92 | +1 |
| 17 | Seattle Sounders | 4.68 | -1 |
| 18 | New England Revolution | 3.38 | — |
| 19 | Chicago Fire | 2.19 | +1 |
| 20 | Inter Miami CF | 2.11 | -1 |
| 21 | Orlando City SC | 2.08 | — |
| 22 | Toronto FC | -0.38 | +1 |
| 23 | Charlotte FC | -1.04 | -1 |
| 24 | Houston Dynamo | -4.17 | — |
| 25 | Vancouver Whitecaps | -5.50 | — |
| 26 | Sporting KC | -6.09 | +1 |
| 27 | San Jose Earthquakes | -6.13 | -1 |
| 28 | DC United | -14.87 | — |
It’s Labor Day, so we’re keeping this short. Not a lot of movement in rankings, but a lot of shifts in score that should lead to some movement soon. CF Montreál, Austin FC, New York Red Bulls, and Nashville SC are all grouped closely together in spots four through seven with just 1.56 points between them. A single result next week could shift those rankings around.
DC United have leveled out at the bottom of the table, but they’re still 8.74 points below San Jose in 27th place.
Projected standings
Nashville‘s win over Austin FC gives them a good bit of breathing room, with a projected four points between them and eighth place LA Galaxy. Their meeting next week could essentially book a playoff spot for the ‘Yotes.
Seattle Sounders kept themselves alive with a win over Houston Dynamo, but they have a significant hill to climb. They’ll need to makeup five points over LA and Portland Timbers. Houston will be eliminated this weekend with a loss to Sporting KC and a win from the Galaxy.
In the East, Philadelphia Union keep pace with LAFC for the Supporters’ Shield, projected to finish just two points behind. Despite New England Revolution‘s win over NYCFC, they’re trending towards an eighth-place finish.
DC United could be eliminated this weekend with a loss to Real Salt Lake and wins or draws from both FC Cincinnati and the Revolution.
Twitter
With due respect, I think your algorithm needs a lot of tweaking. You’re rewarding too much what happened earlier in the season.
On what planet is NYCFC #3 in the rankings right now, when they have lost 6 of their last 7 matches? Simple – your model is flawed. Goal differential is great for tiebreakers, but in a parity-driven league like MLS where teams are streaky, it’s a flawed metric. NYCFC’s goal differential has remained positive despite their losing streak due to what they were doing earlier in the season.
I also wonder if you programmed your algorithm correctly if 15% of it is points per game over the last five matches. NYCFC has 3 points in 5 matches. Atlanta has 4 points in their last 5. Orlando has 12 in their last 5. and you have the latter significantly below the prior two.
Expected goal differential is an utterly pointless thing to include in rankings. You’re rewarding teams that underachieve and penalizing teams that manage to find ways to score out of sheer grit. This is precisely why Atlanta United, who are a bunch of bottlers who regularly put up a lot of attempts and don’t actually convert them, is #15 in your rankings.
In one match, xG can show you if a team overachieved or got lucky. even five matches can tell you if what you’re seeing might be a mirage. 28-30 matches = it’s reality at this point. if you’re still significantly scoring less than your xG, it means you’re a team that can’t finish. if you are a team that scores more than your xG, it means you’ve found a way to score off of less conventional, lower quality attempts. You shouldn’t be rewarded for creating chances, you should be rewarded for CONVERTING THEM.
Strength of schedule is the wrong metric – you should be using strength of VICTORY. and using strength of victory at the time the match was played. 5 of NYCFC’s last 6 losses came against teams below the playoff line, including one against the team you proclaim the worst in the league (DC). They suffer no repercussions for this?
Power rankings shouldn’t merely mirror standings, but they should reflect current form, and the fact that you have NYCFC up there with the class of the league when right now, they have lost 6 of their last 7, with a -7 goal differential during that time, whereas you have a team on a 4 game winning streak at #21. Insanity.