Week 30 MLS Power Rankings

How the rankings work

These power rankings aren’t a subjective result of one person’s opinion, but use a stats-based model for each team to get a more in-depth look at where clubs actually stand. The model weighs points per game and strength of schedule most heavily, with goal difference and expected goal difference weighted incrementally less. This is an attempt to show not just how teams have done in the table, but how they’ve played on the field. If you’re interested in the methodology, the full model can be viewed here.

These power rankings aren’t an attempt to predict the final table, just to provide readers with a different angle from which to judge teams. A helpful way to think of it is if a team is significantly higher in the rankings than they are in the table, they’re probably underperforming. If they’re significantly lower in the rankings than in the table, they’re overperforming.

Week 30 Power Rankings

  1. Seattle Sounders (↑1)
  2. New England Revolution (↓1)
  3. Nashville SC (↑1)
  4. Sporting KC (↓1)
  5. NYCFC (-)
  6. DC United (-)
  7. Colorado Rapids (-)
  8. LA Galaxy (-)
  9. Philadelphia Union (-)
  10. New York Red Bulls (↑3)
  11. Atlanta United (↑1)
  12. CF Montréal (↓1)
  13. Minnesota United (↓3)
  14. Real Salt Lake (↑2)
  15. Orlando City SC (↓1)
  16. LAFC (↑2)
  17. Portland Timbers (↓2)
  18. Vancouver Whitecaps (↓1)
  19. Columbus Crew (↑1)
  20. FC Dallas (↓1)
  21. Houston Dynamo (-)
  22. San Jose Earthquakes (-)
  23. Chicago Fire (↑1)
  24. Austin FC (↓1)
  25. Toronto FC (↑1)
  26. Inter Miami CF (↓1)
  27. FC Cincinnati (-)

Let’s just get this out of the way off the bat. New England Revolution drop out of first place after a 2-2 draw in Chicago. Seattle Sounders are back on top for the first time since Week 21. Yes, fans will get upset that they take the top spot after a 2-1 loss to Houston Dynamo, but they also got a significant bump from a 4-1 win over Vancouver Whitecaps last weekend, which was included in the MLS gameweek.

Nashville SC hold onto third even with a 0-0 draw to DC United in which they ended up on the wrong side of a lopsided xG scoreline, but it’s enough to hold onto their spot with Sporting KC’s 2-1 loss to Vancouver.

New York Red Bulls jump three spots into the top 10 after 1-0 wins over Inter Miami CF and New York City FC. They’re still outside the playoff picture, but recent form has them firmly in the mix for one of the final playoff spots in the East.

Minnesota United drop three spots after a 3-1 loss to Colorado Rapids. The Rapids played for over 30 minutes down a man, and were still the better side, scoring twice in the final 10 minutes to get a big win.

Projected standings

New England have officially clinched the top spot in the East. Seattle Sounders have also clinched a playoff spot in the West. On the other end of the spectrum, Chicago Fire, Toronto FC, FC Cincinnati and Austin FC are all officially out of playoff contention, with Cincinnati firmly in the lead for the Wooden Spoon.

Nashville SC are still projected to finish in second, but only by three points. With home matches against Columbus Crew and Orlando City and a win-able road match in Cincinnati, it’s not out of the question for them to finish with more than their projected eight points from their remaining five matches.

If Nashville don’t lose another match, they’ll set the MLS single-season record for fewest losses. If they draw four of their remaining five, they’ll set the single-season record for most draws.

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