The 4th Down Decision: Fantasy effect of free agent WRs

Written by Zach Lyons, co-host of Football & Other F Words and The Flex, “The 4th Down Decision” will look at various fantasy topics from whether you should “Punt” or “Go For It”. When reading the advice please keep in mind: 12-Team league, PPR, 6 pt passing TDs. All ADPs based on FantasyPros.com‘s web site.

This wide receiver free agent class was the exact opposite of the rookie class. It sucks. No reason to sugarcoat it, it sucks so bad that it is directly reflected when you look at the free agent WRs’ ADP rankings.

Go For It: Arizona Cardinals wide receivers

DeAndre Hopkins

  • Current ADP: 12 (1st Round)
  • Current Positional Ranking: WR3

Christian Kirk

  • Current ADP: 109 (10th Round)
  • Current Positional Ranking: WR39

This is kind of a cheat, because DeAndre Hopkins was stupidly traded to the Cardinals and was not a free agent, but I write the articles so I decided to include him. 

Now that DeAndre Hopkins is not a rival to my beloved Tennessee Titans, I can finally appreciate DeAndre Hopkins for the elite talent he is. I can also own him and start him every week. This is a match made in heaven for DeAndre, but also for Christian Kirk and the rest of the Arizona offense.

In 2019, Arizona was 18th in the league in passing attempts with 554, but 55.4% of their offensive plays were pass plays. That is only going to go up with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray having a 2nd season under Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

It doesn’t matter who is behind center, because when it comes to fantasy football, DeAndre is always producing. Now he is on a new team with a more modern offense. A wide receiver in the 1st round is always risky with running backs on the board, but I would recommend DeAndre at the bottom of the first. 

I do like Christian Kirk’s value a tad bit better. In fact, in keeper leagues I have been kicking the tires on trading for him. He has someone to take the pressure of opposing defenses off of him, and he won’t have to be relied on as the lone passing threat. 

Last year Christian Kirk went for 709 yards and three TDs. I think he can easily be a 1,000 yard receiver and get around 7 touchdowns this year. 

Go For It: Robby Anderson

  • Current ADP: 150 (13th Round)
  • Current Positional Ranking: WR54

Come on, people. This is ridiculous. No matter what you feel about D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson is the WR1 in Carolina, and being able to draft a NFL team’s WR1 in the 13th Round is bonkers.

In an offense where QBs like Trevor Siemian, Luke Falk, and a sophomore slump Sam Darnold were throwing him the ball. He ranked second among WRs on his QBs throwing deep ball incompletions. Despite all of this, Robby Anderson was still able to get 5 touchdowns and 779 yards.

HUGE EYE EMOJIS

Now he is heading to a better coached team with a head coach in Matt Rhule who is familiar with Robby Anderson from their days at Temple. This is also the most talented offense he has been around.

D.J. Moore, Teddy Bridgewater, Christian McCaffery, and Curtis Samuel all on one team, and not to mention the improvements they’ve made on the offensive line, combine to create an environment to give Robby Anderson his best year yet.

Since entering the NFL, Robby Anderson has yet to top 1,000 yards, but I think this is that year for him. I would easily play Robby in the flex every week and to get an every week starter in the 13th Round is fantastic.

Punt: Being fooled by the scrub in a new place

Breshad Perriman

  • Current ADP: 158 (14th Round)
  • Current Positional Ranking: WR59

A scrub is a scrub. Sure they can be put into a better situation and find fantasy relevance, but don’t think that changes who they are if they leave that system. Breshad is a perfect example of this.

Breshad found 69 targets come his way in Tampa Bay last year. His fantasy relevance was based on pure volume of that offense. Do not be fooled. Breshad is not good, and he is not draftable. He is a scrub.

That will show when he heads to the disaster that is the New York Jets offense. This is a horrible landing spot for him, and eventually most of the players on this roster will check out. I think Breshad is definitely going to be content just collecting a paycheck on a bad team.

There are other players that fall into this category of players I categorize as: “Let the other guy draft them”. It is crazy to say this out loud, but there will be people who think Tajae Sharpe is going to find fantasy relevance in Minnesota. He won’t. Let the other guy draft him.

Geronimo Allison? Let the other guy draft him. Randall Cobb? Let the other guy draft him. Phillip Dorsett, Marquis Lee, Devin Funchess, Nelson Agholor? Say it with me now: Let the other guy draft them.

A scrub is a scrub. They won’t get no love from me.

Go For It: Emmanuel Sanders’ value

  • Current ADP: 109 (10th Round)
  • Current Positional Ranking: WR40

One spot below Christian Kirk is a lil fella named Emmanuel Sanders. For those that may have forgotten, Emmanuel Sanders is down in the bayou with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. There is some voodoo magic brewing in New Orleans, and I am loving every bit of it.

Sanders is going to play with arguably his best quarterback pairing since Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees finally has a reliable target outside of Michael Thomas.

People can say: “Well he had Ted Ginn!!1”, and those people can go read the previous section about scrubs.

Drew Brees made Ginn, and not the other way around. Simple, don’t overthink it. Now, we have a relationship that will work well for everyone involved. Sanders can get the volume he works best with, while Brees has a reliable target at every down and distance, and Michael Thomas can have a little bit of pressure eased off of him.

It is really such an under the radar free agent move, I am surprised that Sanders is still going as WR40 this late in drafts.

Love my opinions? Hate my opinions? Leave comments below, and let’s discuss!

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