The Best Bets For Super Bowl 58

7 months.

That’s how long we will be without NFL football after Sunday. Luckily, Super Bowl 58 is shaping up to send us out on a high note.

This Sunday is of course a rematch of Super Bowl 54, though only one of the quarterbacks remembers the first meeting. Patrick Mahomes will look to claim his third Super Bowl victory on the road to becoming the greatest of all time, while Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy will once again look to prove critics wrong.

Such a battle should bring entertainment both on the field and in the sports books, and Broadway Sports Media’s resident sharps JT Ruhnke & Easton Freeze have you covered. Their betting record is publicly tracked all year long in The Best Bet Gauntlet, a segment on The Hot Read Podcast. Here’s how they’ve done so far this season:

Easton Freeze: 59-51-4
JT Ruhnke: 64-47-3
2023 Season: 123-98-7

Here are their best sides, totals, props, and a few fun sprinkles to help you win some money on Super Bowl Sunday.

SIDES

SF 1H Moneyline (-120)

Ruhnke: If you like San Francisco in this one, but are concerned about Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, I think betting on San Francisco to come out scoring in the first half and lead at halftime is the play. 

This matchup feels like a game of adjustments. I expect Kyle Shanahan and his offense to come out swinging, and am looking for Steve Spagnuolo to adjust heavily in the second half. The price isn’t great, but it gives you more security than betting on the 49ers outright and losing to Mahomes Magic once again.


TOTALS

KC 1H Team Total 10.5 OVER (+100)

Ruhnke: As I said above, I expect the first half to be the higher of the scoring halves before the defenses begin showing up. While this may seem counterintuitive to my previous bet, I truly believe the defenses will have some catching up to do later in the game. The Chiefs have covered this number in all three of their playoff games this year, and against a softer SF defense than in years past, I like them to do it again.


PROPS

P. Mahomes UNDER 260.5 Pass Yds (-110)

Freeze: You’re going to see that a recurring theme with many of these handicaps is the expectation of a run-heavy game. It makes too much sense for both teams: the 49ers’ run defense is too weak for the Chiefs not to try exploiting it, and Kyle Shanahan has the best RB in football with a QB I’m sure he’d like not to lose the game for them.

Patrick Mahomes has gone under this number in 8 of his last 12 games. This SF defense has forced opposing QBs to throw for less than this number in 15 of 19 games this season, which is particularly impressive considering how many trailing, pass-heavy gamescripts their opponents have been in! I expect the Super Bowl to continue this trend.

P. Mahomes UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-110)

Freeze: Zero. That’s how many interceptions Patrick Mahomes has thrown in his last 6 playoff games. As he’s matured, he’s become elite at protecting the ball in do-or-die games. Pair that with a heavier run presence and I think he’ll finish this game cleanly.

P. Mahomes OVER 4.5 Rush Att (-122)

Ruhnke: One of my favorite props of the week, Patrick Mahomes at his core is a playmaker. His ability to extend plays is what has dragged the Chiefs to this 4th Super Bowl appearance. 

Mahomes has exceeded this number in three of his last four playoff games, including last year’s Super Bowl. Due to the amount of zone coverage the 49ers love to play, and how much I expect Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice to be double-covered, Mahomes could look to extend plays a lot more than usual.

I. Pacheco OVER 67.5 Rush Yds (-109)

Freeze: This one feels like stealing. Pacheco has rushed for north of 67 yards in 5 of his last 6 outings. As long as the game stays close, Andy Reid won’t hesitate to continue to give him the rock against this poor SF run defense.

The 49ers have allowed an average of 137.5 yards per game on the ground in their last 6 performances.

I. Pacheco 1+ TD (-117)

Freeze: If we expect him to get a lot of run on the ground, we need to include a TD on our slate. Pacheco has at least 1 score in 6 of his last 7 games. I don’t see why the Chiefs wouldn’t play it safe when they get into the low red zone against this poor run defense. I expect them to pound it in there at least once, with the ball in Pacheco’s hands.

M. Valdez-Scantling OVER 1.5 Receptions (-108)

Ruhnke: Much like the Mahomes prop, this is a bet on the Chiefs and Andy Reid to look for ways to expose the 49ers zone coverage usage. With so much attention given to Rice and Kelce, that leaves Mahomes with few options on the outside that truly move the needle. The one player I think can do that for the Chiefs on the outside is MVS.

The line is pretty fair, however in games like this I will look for Mahomes to spread the ball out. MVS has recorded two receptions in each of his last two playoff games and I’m betting that he doesn’t drop the ball again in this one.

D. Samuel OVER 78.5 Rush + Rec Yds (-115)

Freeze: This might be my favorite bet in this article. There’s a ton of signal indicating the over is the play here. Where to begin?

For starters, the reason this isn’t just a straight receiving yards bet is because of the consistency with which Deebo gets the ball on the ground. He has 3+ rushing attempts in every health playoff game he’s ever played.

As for the actual number, Samuel has only ever had fewer than 79 rushing + receiving yards in 4 of 11 career playoff games. One of those was when he quite literally had no QB to throw him the ball, and the other was a game where he was hurt.

He appears to be fully healthy for this one. Two weeks ago, he put up 96 all-purpose yards against the Lions. This Chiefs secondary is built to stop outside receivers, which leads me to think we may get less Aiyuk and more Deebo.


PARLAYS

SF +3.5/I. Pacheco 50+ Rush Yds/D. Samuel 50+ Rec Yds (+231)

Ruhnke, Freeze: Now that we’ve talked sides, totals, and props, it’s time to talk parlays. With everything we just ran down, let’s tease some of our favorite bets to create a parlay to over double our money!


SPRINKLES

What good is a Super Bowl if you don’t indulge in some of the crazy props that sportsbooks offer? Here are a few of our favorites that we will be sprinkling some dough on:

Both Teams To Score 1+ Rush TD (+125)

Freeze: In case it’s not painfully clear at this point: I’m expecting both run games to shine on Sunday. A sneaky element of this bet is factoring in just how many non-RBs are playing in this game who will be a threat to score with their legs: Mahomes, Purdy, Samuel, etc.

Total Punts OVER 7.5 (+110)

Ruhnke: Tailing a few of our bettor friends in Allan Bell and others, there is a reality in which this game becomes a defensive stalemate quicker than anticipated. The value of this prop is too good to pass up and who doesn’t love punters?!?

C. McCaffrey OVER 3.5 yds 1st Carry (-115)

Freeze: This is easily the strangest bet on this list, but when I came across it I couldn’t say no. CMC has gone over this number in 11 of 16 games this year, and KC has undersized LBs who should lend to making his first attempt a nice gain.

First TD Scorer: C. McCaffrey OR I. Pacheco (+190) 

Ruhnke: The expected run-heavy nature of this game script feels like it lends itself to this one. Both teams’ favorite red zone producer wrapped into one bet is a value that is too good not to sprinkle.

C. McCaffrey MVP (+450)/I. Pacheco MVP (+2500)

Freeze: If you’ve read this entire article and haven’t already started to come to this conclusion on your own, I’m not sure what to tell you. I think there is a very plausible world in which one of the RBs ends up winning MVP of this Super Bowl. Both are worth a sprinkle.

Author: Easton Freezeis a Nashville native who loves covering the NFL. He is the host of The Hot Read Podcast, and when he isn't watching or covering sports, he's spending time with friends and family.

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