Wednesday brings the final matchday for Groups C and D. Today, my wagers of the day feature three Over/Under bets as I attempt to make bets based on the anticipated game state.
Feel free to hop on the bandwagon with me or get in my mentions about how dumb my picks are. Either way, know your limits, enjoy yourself, and strap in for another day of exciting World Cup action.
Hitting the under on Tunisia and France
France enters the final matchday having already qualified for the knockout round and needing a solitary point to ensure they win the group. Motivation has to be a factor. I don’t expect a fully rotated lineup from Les Bleus, but the pedal may not be pressed to the metal.
Tunisia needs a win to have a chance to advance. A tie in the other match coupled with a 1-0 Tunisia win would be enough to see them through. Tunisia’s manager, Jalel Kadri, still needs to worry about overstretching the field in search of a goal. Allowing too much space in behind rolls out a red carpet for Kylian Mbappé to add to his goal tally.
Therefore, my bet is on a low-scoring match where Tunisia looks to frustrate France and nick a goal on a counter or restart. If France scores first and early, all bets are off. It will throw pre-match aspirations out the window and could lead to a runaway.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals (-110) – 1 unit
Another under to hit
On the other side of Group D, there is reason to smash the “Under” once again. Denmark and Australia have produced three combined goals on 2.8 xG across four combined matches. Both squads have their strengths, but neither counts those as finding the killer movement in the final third.
Australia enters the match knowing that a draw likely will be enough to see them through, assuming that France handles Tunisia. Accordingly, the Socceroos will continue with their defensive-first tactics until pressed to shake things up either due to a Danish goal or a Tunisia lead at Education City.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals (-115) – 1 unit
Fireworks on hand in Lusail
In all likelihood, Mexico needs a win sprinkled with style points. Here is a good breakdown of the various scenarios facing El Tri.
Suffice it to say, Mexico must find goals in abundance. It has been a problem for Mexico as they have yet to find the back of the net at this World Cup.
Here is the kicker, Saudi Arabia finds itself in a similar boat. If Argentina wins, the Saudis need to win and erase the goal differential gap with Poland. With their high line pushed perhaps even a little higher, there will be gaps for Mexico to exploit. The question becomes does Mexico push the throttle too high leaving themselves vulnerable in the back as well?
I am expecting they will out of desperation. No one wants to be the first Mexican team in generations to fail to advance out of the group stage. Mexico will go for broke in search of goals. It should make for a wildly entertaining night.
- Over 3.5 Total Goals (+200) – 1 unit
As a bonus, I am adding quick picks for all matches each day.
- Tunisia v. France – France (-240)
- Australia v. Denmark – Denmark (-205)
- Poland v. Argentina – Argentina (-240)
- Saudi Arabia v. Mexico – Mexico (-160)